A Historic Visit: Putin in Vietnam
Background and Overview
On June 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam, for a highly anticipated two-day visit. This trip marked Putin's fifth visit to the Southeast Asian nation and was one of his first international stops since being sworn in for his fifth term. The visit carried significant weight, coming on the heels of Putin's meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.
Putin's visit to Vietnam was steeped in historical context, with the two nations sharing a long history of diplomatic and military ties. Vietnam, a rising nation with a neutral foreign policy, has carefully navigated its relationships with major powers, including the United States, China, and Russia. This visit served as a test of Hanoi's ability to maintain its delicate balancing act.
Putin's Agenda and Goals
Putin's agenda for the Vietnam visit was multi-faceted and aimed to strengthen the Russia-Vietnam relationship across various domains. Here's an overview of his key goals and the outcomes of the visit:
- Strengthening Strategic Ties: Putin emphasized the importance of Vietnam as a strategic partner, calling it "one of his priorities." He sought to build a reliable security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region with Vietnam as a key player.
- Energy and Investment: Putin expressed Russia's interest in expanding investment in Vietnam's energy sector. Russian energy firms, such as Gazprom and Novatek, have had a presence in Vietnam, and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects were on the table.
- Military and Security: Russia has been Vietnam's biggest weapons supplier since the Soviet era. Putin aimed to reinforce military and security ties, including potential new arms deals.
- Economic Cooperation: Putin highlighted progress in finance and trade, noting the increase in bilateral trade and the use of the ruble and Vietnamese dong in transactions. He also mentioned potential cooperation in scientific, technological, and humanitarian areas.
- Nuclear Energy: Putin proposed establishing a center for nuclear science and technology in Vietnam with the support of Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom.
- Regional Dialogue: Putin respected Vietnam's active role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and shared similar assessments of the Asia-Pacific region's political situation.
Vladimir Putin visits Vietnam - June 19, 2024 The Bigger Picture: Geopolitical Implications
Beyond Bilateral Ties
Putin's visit to Vietnam carried broader implications for the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the context of major power competition and Vietnam's delicate balancing act. Here's an analysis of the wider implications:
- Major Power Competition: The visit highlighted how Vietnam has become a focal point for competition among major powers, including the United States, China, and Russia. Each power seeks to supply Vietnam with security, albeit with different motivations and capabilities.
- Vietnam's Multilateralism: Hanoi's invitation to Putin, despite Western criticism, underscored its commitment to multilateralism and a neutral foreign policy. Vietnam aims to internationalize the South China Sea disputes and involve multiple powers to ensure its security.
- Russia's Asia-Pacific Ambitions: Despite its focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia reaffirmed its commitment to the Asia-Pacific region. Putin's visit signaled that Russia intends to maintain its role and influence in the region, particularly regarding security and economic cooperation.
- Impact on US-Vietnam Relations: The United States, a key trade partner of Vietnam, expressed disapproval of Putin's visit. This created a delicate situation for Hanoi, navigating its relationships with both powers. Vietnam's willingness to host Putin despite US criticism highlighted its determination to maintain autonomy in its foreign policy decision-making.
- China's Role: Vietnam's complex relationship with China, marked by territorial disputes in the South China Sea, added another layer of complexity. Vietnam sought to balance its ties with Beijing, ensuring that its improving relations with Russia and the US did not come at the expense of its interests with China.
- Regional Security Architecture: Putin's visit, along with his stop in North Korea, contributed to a shifting security architecture in the region. The potential for deepened Russia-Vietnam military and security ties added a new dimension to the geopolitical dynamics, particularly regarding the South China Sea and broader regional stability.
- Economic Opportunities: Beyond security, Vietnam presented economic opportunities for Russia, especially in the energy sector. Russian companies have been eyeing investments in Vietnam's liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, showcasing the economic motivations behind Putin's visit.
- Limits of Western Isolation: Putin's trip to Vietnam, along with his recent visits to China and North Korea, challenged the notion of Russia's isolation. Despite Western sanctions and criticism, Putin demonstrated that he still holds political clout and can foster relationships with key countries in the region.
- Vietnam's Future Moves: Hanoi's next challenge will be managing its relationships with the US, China, and Russia simultaneously. Vietnam aims to benefit from the competition among these powers while avoiding taking sides. The country's ability to navigate this complex landscape will shape its future strategic position in the region.