Introduction
In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping declared a "no-limits" partnership, signalling a united front against what they perceive as American hegemony and interference. This declaration came just days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has since resulted in Moscow facing rising tensions and economic sanctions from Western countries, particularly the United States, which views the alliance as a challenge to its global influence. As Putin embarks on his first foreign trip since his re-election in March 2024, he is turning to his closest ally, Xi Jinping, to reaffirm their commitment to this partnership. This blog will explore the context, implications, and future prospects of the Russia-China alliance.
Description
Historical Context
The relationship between Russia and China has evolved significantly over the decades, marked by periods of both cooperation and rivalry. The two countries share a lengthy border and a complex history, including a brief border war in 1969. Since the turn of the 21st century, however, their relationship has improved substantially, with increasing military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation.
Current Dynamics
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a critical test for the Russia-China partnership. While China has not openly supported the invasion, it has refrained from criticising Moscow and continues to supply key components needed for weapons production. This stance has drawn scrutiny and sanctions from Western countries, particularly the United States, which views the alliance as a challenge to its global influence.
Military Cooperation
Russia and China have engaged in frequent joint military exercises, signalling a united front against perceived adversaries. These exercises have provided both countries with operational experience and opportunities for deterrent signalling. Additionally, China has been a significant source of military technology for Russia, including advanced aircraft, engines, and air defence systems. However, there have been tensions due to China's repeated theft of Russian technology, creating friction in their defence industry collaboration.
Economic Ties
Bilateral trade between Russia and China has grown significantly, reaching a record $240 billion in 2023. Russia has become heavily dependent on China as an economic lifeline, particularly in the wake of Western sanctions. China is now Russia's top crude oil supplier, and their trade relationship is expected to further strengthen with the planned expansion of energy infrastructure, such as the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
Diplomatic Alignment
Russia and China have found common ground in their desire to counter US influence and promote a multipolar world order. They have coordinated within international institutions, such as the United Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, to challenge US-led norms. Additionally, they have established their own institutions, such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, to garner support from developing countries and challenge the dominance of the US dollar.
